Imports into the United States continued to rise in the first quarter of 2025, but S&P Global Market Intelligence warns that newly implemented tariffs and weak consumer demand may lead to a downturn starting in the second quarter.

According to newly released data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, import volumes into the U.S. recorded strong growth in March.

Total imports in March reached 2.75 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), up 10.2% year-over-year, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of growth. In the first quarter, total imports hit 8.14 million TEUs, an increase of 9.1% from the previous year. However, S&P noted that the year-on-year comparison is somewhat softened due to 2024 being a leap year, while February 2025 had only 28 days.

Consumer goods were the main drivers of growth in March, rising 17.9% year-over-year (excluding automobiles). Notable increases include:

• Furniture: +23.3%

• Home appliances: +14.4%

• Everyday consumer essentials: +14.0%

• Pharmaceuticals: +17.3% (potentially influenced by upcoming Section 232 tariff considerations)

• Recreational goods and toys: +8.4% and +5.6%, respectively

Products with long life cycles—less affected by fast-changing fashion or tech trends—continue to lead growth due to their long-term storage potential.

S&P noted that the growth in essential consumer goods may also reflect a preemptive response to new tariff measures and a broader sense of caution among importers.

In contrast, industrial goods showed uneven growth:

• Raw materials: +15.2%, driven by a 22.3% rise in chemicals

• Capital equipment: +7.2%, held back by weaker demand for electronic components and electrical equipment

S&P Global also emphasized that key production and shipping decisions for the peak retail season are typically made in the second quarter, with peak arrivals in the U.S. occurring around October during 2016–2019. However, in 2024, September was the high point due to fears of port strikes. In 2025, this pattern may shift again, with businesses possibly delaying decisions in anticipation of tariff rollbacks.

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Looking Ahead

S&P forecasts that U.S. imports could decline in the coming quarters due to weakening consumer and industrial demand indicators. Specifically:

• Second quarter of 2025: Imports expected to drop by 3.0%

• Third quarter of 2025: A deeper decline of 4.9% projected

Additional complications such as freight rate volatility, shifting carrier alliances, and potential new port fees may further hinder import strategies.

Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, advised businesses to remain flexible in their strategies amid an unpredictable and tariff-pressured supply chain landscape:

“First, import while you can—and do it early. Second, pass on the added costs to customers,” he said.
“Can you convince your suppliers to absorb some of the pain? Chinese retailers tried that and got government warnings. Another route is increasing retail prices—something businesses are reluctant to do, but some are already implementing tariff surcharges and openly explaining the reasons, like: ‘Import costs have increased by $20, so we need to pass that on to stay profitable.’”

Rogers added that while many companies are ramping up imports in the second quarter, making the numbers appear stronger, the broader trend of slowing trade is clear:

“The 10% tariff is still in place. Transit times are six to eight weeks. If you want to be ready, you must act now. Back-to-school season planning is happening as we speak, and toy orders will be finalized in the coming months.
Larger importers have a planning advantage because they can confidently predict demand. But importers sourcing from Vietnam or Mexico face greater uncertainty, as policy changes could come at any moment.”

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Email: ruby.nguyen@suntransco.com